The post-2026 operating rules for the Colorado River are being decided right now. These articles break down what each proposal actually means for the lake — in feet of water, over time, under real conditions.
Every number comes from Monte Carlo simulations stress-tested against the driest decade on record. No spin, no fear tactics — just the data and what it means for the people and families who love this place.
If we had released just 5% less water since 1996, Lake Powell would be roughly 97 feet higher today.
Continue the 2007 Guidelines past their 2026 expiration with no adjustments. Earns an F at 40 years.
Small, interpolated adjustments to the 2007 tier structure. Better than nothing, but not by much.
Combined-storage balancing between Powell and Mead. Solid third-place option.
Dual-indicator release curves and a 3,510 ft run-of-river floor. The only plan that earns an A at every horizon.
Releases track the 3-year rolling average of natural flow. Highest median ending elevation — but a floor that can bite in consecutive dry years.
Building new water is the Southwest's best long-run play — but it takes 15-20 years to come online, so it can't rescue the near term.
Max Operational Flexibility is the only plan that keeps Powell above minimum power pool in the worst 10% of futures.