The post-2026 operating rules for the Colorado River are being decided right now. These articles break down what each proposal actually means for the lake — in feet of water, over time, under real conditions.
Every number comes from Monte Carlo simulations stress-tested against the driest decade on record. No spin, no fear tactics — just the data and what it means for the people and families who love this place.
If we had released just 5% less water since 1996, Lake Powell would be roughly 98 feet higher today.
Keep the 2007 Guidelines past their 2026 expiration with no changes. Earns a D at 40 years.
Small tweaks that smooth out the 2007 rules. Better than nothing, but not by much.
Powell and Mead share their storage as one system. A solid third-place option.
Two-signal release curves and a 3,510 ft run-of-river floor. The only plan that earns an A at every year mark.
Releases follow the 3-year rolling average of natural flow. Highest median ending elevation — but a floor that can bite in back-to-back dry years.
Building new water is the Southwest's best long-run play. But it takes 15 to 20 years to come into service. So it cannot rescue the near term.
Two plans stand out for different reasons — Supply Driven for lake recovery, Max Operational Flexibility for worst-case protection. Which to pick depends on what you value.