Max Operational Flexibility — strongest drawdown protection
Two-signal release curves and a 3,510 ft run-of-river floor. The only plan that earns an A at every year mark.
Max Operational Flexibility is the boldest of the Draft EIS plans. Releases are set by two signals at once: current storage and recent inflow. The plan uses clear release curves at three flow levels. Below 3,510 ft the plan switches to run-of-river. That means the lake releases only what nature brings in — no extra draw. This floor is the killer feature. It stops the lake from being drained past the point where power and ecology break down.
Lake Powell elevation under the driest decade on record. The median line shows the most likely path. The worst-10% line shows the bottom 10% of bad-luck futures.
The scorecard
We tested this plan the same way we test every plan. We used inflows from the last ten years — the driest decade on record. We ran 2,000 Monte Carlo trials for 40 years. The starting point and inflows stay the same. Only the operating rule changes.
| Year mark | Median ending | Worst 10% floor | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 3605.5 ft | 3507.4 ft | A |
| 20 years | 3604.9 ft | 3507.4 ft | A |
| 40 years | 3599.2 ft | 3507.2 ft | A |
Strengths
- Only plan that keeps the worst 10% floor above the 3,490 ft minimum power pool. Even in the bottom 10% of futures, Glen Canyon Dam keeps making power.
- Earns an A at all three year marks — 10, 20, and 40 years — under the last-decade stress test.
- Run-of-river protection below 3,510 ft means the lake cannot be run into dead pool, even in extreme cases.
- Two-signal curves respond faster than single-signal rules. The plan handles both wet and dry runs better than fixed-tier rules.
Weaknesses
- The boldest politics. It changes the operating mindset the most. That will draw the most pushback from groups that like the current rules.
- Run-of-river below 3,510 ft means Lower Basin users get less water when the lake is low. In practice, that is what should happen — but it will be framed as a loss.
- More complex than tier rules. Operators and users have to learn a new way to make choices.
Verdict
Max Operational Flexibility is one of our two top picks, along with Supply Driven. MOF wins on worst-case protection: it is the plan whose bottom 10% holds closest to the post-Phase-1 line. Every other plan's bad-luck floor drops 60+ feet lower. If your first concern is "don't let the lake drop any further," this is the plan that delivers. Back this one if you value downside protection; back Supply Driven if you want the lake to fill back up. If both are blocked, Enhanced Coordination is the safe fallback.
See all plans side by side in the head-to-head verdict, or read about why the real problem isn't drought — it's math.