Max Operational Flexibility: The Clear Winner
Dual-indicator release curves and a 3,510 ft run-of-river floor. The only plan that earns an A at every horizon.
Max Operational Flexibility is the most aggressive of the Draft EIS alternatives. Releases are determined by dual indicators — both current storage percentage and recent flow category — using explicit curves at three flow levels. Below 3,510 ft the plan switches to run-of-river operation, meaning releases equal natural flow (no additional drawdown). This floor is the killer feature: it prevents the lake from being drained below the point where hydropower and ecology fail.
Projected Lake Powell elevation under the driest decade on record. Median line shows the most likely outcome; p10 line is the 10th-percentile worst case.
The scorecard
We ran this plan through our standard stress test: sampled inflows from the last ten years (the driest decade on record), 2,000 Monte Carlo iterations, 40 years forward. Same starting point as every other plan we evaluate. Same inflow sampling. Only the operating rule changes.
| Horizon | Median Ending | Worst-Case Floor | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 3592.4 ft | 3508.4 ft | A |
| 20 years | 3592 ft | 3508.3 ft | A |
| 40 years | 3585.7 ft | 3507.8 ft | A |
Strengths
- Only plan that keeps the p10 worst-case floor above minimum power pool (3,490 ft). Even in the bottom 10% of bad-luck futures, Glen Canyon Dam keeps generating power.
- Consistent A grades at 10, 20, and 40 year horizons under the last-decade stress test.
- Run-of-river protection below 3,510 ft means the lake cannot be operated into dead pool even in extreme scenarios.
- Dual-indicator curves are more responsive than single-indicator rules — the plan handles both wet and dry sequences better than static tier systems.
Weaknesses
- Politically the most ambitious. Changes the operating philosophy the most, which will attract the most pushback from stakeholders who prefer the current status quo.
- Run-of-river operation below 3,510 ft means Lower Basin users see reduced deliveries when the lake is low. In practice this is what should happen, but it will be framed as a loss.
- More complex than tier-based rules. Operators and users have to learn a new decision framework.
Verdict
Max Operational Flexibility is the plan we recommend pushing for. It is the only plan whose worst-case outcome keeps minimum power pool online. Every other plan, in the bottom 10% of futures, reaches at least minimum power pool or lower under last-decade stressed conditions. If you care about Lake Powell having a stable, operational future — one where boats launch, turbines spin, and the ecology holds — this is the plan that delivers it. Support this one first. Fall back to Enhanced Coordination only if this one is politically blocked.
See all plans compared in the head-to-head verdict, or read about why the real problem isn't drought — it's math.