Enhanced Coordination: Letting Powell and Mead Work Together
Powell and Mead share their storage as one system. A solid third-place option.
Enhanced Coordination treats Powell and Mead as one system, not two separate lakes with their own rules. Releases from Powell go up or down based on the combined storage of both lakes. When the system is low, both lakes ease up. When the system is fuller, releases ramp up. The goal is to keep both lakes healthy at the same time. Neither one should crash while the other sits fine.
Lake Powell elevation under the driest decade on record. The median line shows the most likely path. The worst-10% line shows the bottom 10% of bad-luck futures.
The scorecard
We tested this plan the same way we test every plan. We used inflows from the last ten years — the driest decade on record. We ran 2,000 Monte Carlo trials for 40 years. The starting point and inflows stay the same. Only the operating rule changes.
| Year mark | Median ending | Worst 10% floor | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 3618.9 ft | 3496.2 ft | A |
| 20 years | 3598.1 ft | 3489.3 ft | A |
| 40 years | 3592.6 ft | 3468.5 ft | B |
Strengths
- Worst 10% floor stays at 3,468 ft at 40 years — almost 100 ft above dead pool (3,370 ft) even in bad-luck futures.
- Strong across all year marks. Earns an A at 10 and 20 years, and a B at 40 years.
- Adapts to real conditions. The rule responds to what is happening right now. It handles odd runs of wet and dry years better than fixed rules.
- Keeps the 1922 Compact agreement between the Upper and Lower Basin. It just makes smarter choices inside that framework.
Weaknesses
- Needs real coordination between Upper and Lower Basin states. The politics are harder than Basic Coordination.
- Median ending elevation (3,593 ft) at 40 years is a bit lower than Max Operational Flexibility (3,599 ft). Not by much — but not the top of the pack.
- Both basins have to agree on what "balance" means. If one side games the rule, the benefits shrink.
Verdict
Enhanced Coordination is our third-place pick. It sits behind Max Operational Flexibility and Supply Driven. Both of those do better. But if neither one can pass, Enhanced Coordination is a solid backup. It earns strong grades at every year mark. And it stays inside the 1922 Compact framework we already have.
See all plans side by side in the head-to-head verdict, or read about why the real problem isn't drought — it's math.