Basic Coordination: The Minimum Effort Plan
Small tweaks that smooth out the 2007 rules. Better than nothing, but not by much.
Basic Coordination is the gentlest of the five Draft EIS plans. It keeps the broad 2007 rules. It smooths the jumps between rules so changes are gradual, not sudden. It also adds light coordination with Lake Mead elevations. Release cuts kick in a bit earlier and a bit smaller than under the current rules.
Lake Powell elevation under the driest decade on record. The median line shows the most likely path. The worst-10% line shows the bottom 10% of bad-luck futures.
The scorecard
We tested this plan the same way we test every plan. We used inflows from the last ten years — the driest decade on record. We ran 2,000 Monte Carlo trials for 40 years. The starting point and inflows stay the same. Only the operating rule changes.
| Year mark | Median ending | Worst 10% floor | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 3542.6 ft | 3370 ft | D |
| 20 years | 3539.1 ft | 3370 ft | D |
| 40 years | 3530 ft | 3370 ft | D |
Strengths
- Small improvement over the 2007 rules at low elevations. Smooth steps avoid the cliff effect of hard boundaries.
- Easy politics. This plan changes the least, so it is the easiest to pass.
- No new dams or pipes. No new legal framework.
Weaknesses
- Does not fix the core problem. Inflow minus outflow is still negative in most years. The plan just trims a little off the top.
- The worst 10% floor still reaches dead pool in our stress test. The plan has no real elevation-based safety net.
- Earns a D across all year marks. Median ends near 3,530 ft at 40 years.
Verdict
Basic Coordination is better than No Action but worse than every other plan we tested. If it is the only plan with political support, it beats the status quo — barely. But it should not be the ceiling. Push for Max Operational Flexibility or Enhanced Coordination. Treat Basic as the floor of what's okay.
See all plans side by side in the head-to-head verdict, or read about why the real problem isn't drought — it's math.